On April 18, the Texas town of The Woodlands will once again focus the attention of all long-distance triathlon fans with the IRONMAN TEXAS COMPETITION.
The event, which also serves as the North American Championship, will be the first IRONMAN of the season in the United States and one of the key events at the start of the Pro Series.
The race will bring together more than a hundred professionals in a scenario that, by competitive level, many already compare to an anticipated World Cup. It's not an exaggeration. The starting list includes world champions, Olympic medalists and some of the most dominant names on the circuit in recent years.
According to forecasts by TriRating analyst Thorsten Radde, there are two big clear favorites. In the men's category, the main candidate for victory is Kristian Blummenfelt, while in the women's event the great reference is again Kat Matthews.
Blummenfelt leads a men's poster full of champions
The men's race features one of the most powerful fields remembered in an IRONMAN outside of the World Championship. In fact, Patrick Lange himself went so far as to describe the starting list as a kind of “Kona 2.0,” a label that well reflects the level of competition expected in Texas.
The big favorite according to TriRating statistical models is Kristian Blummenfelt, who is awarded a 34% chance of victory.
The Norwegian also arrives with a dynamic that is difficult to ignore: despite the bad start in IRONMAN New Zealand, he has started the season with consecutive victories in the 70.3 races of Geelong and Oceanside and defends the title achieved here in 2025.
That triumph was not one more. Blummenfelt then signed a historic performance, winning with a time of 7:24:20 that set the circuit record. His final marathon of 2:34:03 remains the absolute benchmark of the event and confirms his ability to decide races in the last segment.
But if the Norwegian appears as the great candidate, the competition will not be less.
The second name with more options according to TriRating is his compatriot Casper Stornes, to whom the model grants a 21% chance of victory. IRONMAN World Champion, Stornes already showed his fitness at Oceanside, where he staged a great comeback to get on the podium.
The third favorite is the Spaniard Antonio Benito, who appears with a 13% chance. The man from La Mancha already knows what it's like to be on the podium in Texas: in the 2025 edition he finished second behind Blummenfelt.
The group of aspirants does not end there. The Danish Magnus Ditlev appears with 10% of options and arrives with the aim of fighting again for a major victory after several seasons among the big names of the circuit. Behind is Patrick Lange, three-time world champion, with a 7% probability and with the added motivation of seeking his third win in Texas after those achieved in 2016 and 2024 - after the loss of the win by
Among the names that could alter the script are Gustav Iden, another world champion who continues to fine-tune his return to the highest level, and the Belgian Marten Van Riel, one of the most complete triathletes on the circuit in recent years.
They are joined by one of the great attractions of the day: the long-distance debut of the Belgian Jelle Geens.
Twice IRONMAN 70.3 World Champion, Geens faces his first experience in the 226 kilometers with an obvious unknown, but also with enormous potential if he manages to transfer his speed to the full distance.
Matthews dominates forecasts in the women's race
If the men's race promises an open battle, the panorama in the women's race appears somewhat more defined. The TriRating models place Kat Matthews as a clear favorite, with a strong 58% chance of victory.
The Briton arrives in Texas with an impressive track record in this race. He has won the last three editions and also holds the circuit record with 8:10:34, achieved in 2025. Her combination of regularity, pace control and ability in the marathon make her one of the most complete triathletes in the long distance.
In addition, Matthews currently leads the Pro Series standings having already scored two wins at the start of the season. Despite this favourable context, the Briton has chosen to maintain a cautious tone in the days leading up to the race.
“My third IRONMAN Pro Series 2026 race is coming up. We have deliberately sought to tighten the calendar at the start of the season.”
"The body is fine on a musculoskeletal level, the mood is surprisingly good and I've only had a small cold after the trip and jet lag, nothing to worry about."
The two main alternatives to Matthews are Taylor Knibb and Solveig Løvseth. The American has a 20% chance according to the model and arrives reinforced after her victory at Oceanside, where she again demonstrated that her power on the bike can break races.
Løvseth, reigning IRONMAN world champion, comes up with a 17% chance. The Norwegian opened the season with a second place in Oceanside, just behind Knibb, which confirms that she is once again among the top contenders on any starting line.
Behind is the Austrian Lisa Perterer, with a 4% chance of winning according to TriRating. The Olympic medalist will start her IRONMAN distance season in Texas after a very consistent 2025.
The Spanish presence will be represented by Marta Sánchez, who arrives after a sixth place in Oceanside and with the aim of staying close to the front group before the marathon, the segment where the podium positions could definitely be decided.
With more than a hundred professionals on the starting line, six places for the Kona World Championship in play and a total prize of 175,000 dollars, IRONMAN Texas is once again one of the great stages of the season. And if TriRating's forecasts are met, the day could end with two household names at the top: Kristian Blummenfelt and Kat Matthews.